The best ways to use dropping odds in football betting
Dropping odds are a part of football betting that should be understood and focused on. It can influence betting decisions. But what are they and what are the best ways to use dropping odds?
What are dropping odds?
Dropping odds is when a selection in a betting market has been shortening. Take a Premier League football match in England for example. Usually well ahead of time, a bookmaker prices up the market.
Those early odds are not going to be the same when it comes close to kick-off time. Bookmakers open markets early, sometimes a good couple of weeks or more ahead of the scheduled date. The opening odds are based on their prediction numbers. They don’t account for what punters are going to do.
All betting markets fluctuate over time and never remain static. They don’t start to become a bit more stable until the day before kick-off.
What causes dropping odds?
Let’s take an example of one of England’s biggest league matches, a Manchester derby in the EPL. A week ahead of the fixture, Manchester City, the favourites, open at 11/10 to win. But during the build-up to the kick-off, the odds on Man City shorten because of punters backing them to win the match.
So by kick-off time, they are a quote of 4/6 odds-on to win the match instead. That’s an example of dropping odds. It shows a clear market trend of a particular selection being supported.
Simply put, the more that a football betting selection is supported by punters placing bets, the more the bookmaker will reduce the odds.
Why are dropping odds important for football betting?
The key thing about dropping odds is that they can influence a betting decision, considering that they have been caused by market support. Here are some things to think about for dropping odds:
- Dropping odds in football betting could enforce a decision that you had been considering
- Dropping odds on a perceived underdog could indicate something like an important development in team news
- Spotting selections which have had dropping odds could be used as part of a betting strategy
- Dropping odds is a tool to read a market, it doesn’t guarantee that the selection will win
The best way to use dropping odds
Backing up your wager - Using dropping odds as part of a football betting strategy can be as simple as watching the odds on a match to see if they do shift. If you have been thinking about picking a team to win and the odds on that pick start to go down, that could help your decision along.
Get in early - The goal in football betting is to catch selections when they are the best odds. That means before, or more realistically, just after they have started moving. If say, Chelsea suddenly shortens to beat Liverpool in a fixture, that’s due to the weight of punters backing the London club to win that top UK match. The remedy to that is to take odds as early as you can to avoid dropping odds.
Flip the dropping odds - Going back to the scenario where Chelsea’s odds shorten to beat Liverpool. Let’s say 1000 punters betting on the Blues caused that market shift. There is no guarantee that those 1000 punters are backing the right selection.
With Chelsea shortening, the odds on Liverpool will go the other way, they will lengthen. So that could be a time to flip and consider the odds on Liverpool to win. Sometimes, dropping odds can be punters underestimating a team, which can create a decent betting opportunity.
% Dropping Odds Strategy - Dropping odds can be used positively. A dropping odds strategy could be set for example, by backing only selections that have moved a certain range in dropping odds. A threshold of a team having moved a 10% range from opening odds, could indicate a trend towards strong picks.
Betting Tips with dropping odds
As part of the Houdini Predictions model of picking out bets that target longer, better odds for punters, we consider dropping odds. There is a section on the site for football betting tips, specifically for selections that are dropping odds.
Dropping odds is an increase in probability when you apply the maths. Through Houdini Predictions, you can get notifications when odds are dropping on a market, and that can be filtered by how much a selection has shifted (e.g. 5% from their opening quote).
As with all the excellent features that Houdini Predictions provide, it is all free to use. Register an account to see the top football tips of the day and start to keep an eye out for those dropping odds for football betting!