A betting guide of how to read soccer odds movement
One thing that is certain in football betting is that odds change. Sometimes the markets will gradually shift, other times, such as with live in-play betting, the soccer odds movement will be rapid. An example is when a goal hits the back of the net in a Premier League match, then the live odds can jump tremendously. The degree of how much will depend on the importance of that goal. If it was a goal that saw a team take the lead with just 10 minutes left, then the odds on that team winning the match would likely shift to a long odds-on quote.
Why it is important to learn how to read soccer odds movement
In this guide, we take a look at how to read soccer odds movement and just why it is so important for a punter. Understanding the odds involved in a market is how the most value can be extracted.
It’s about understanding what you are seeing in the markets and therefore being able to understand what to do and when. Most of the time, the best value bets are those which are caught just at the right time.
Let’s examine both dropping odds and drifting odds.
Understanding dropping odds
When learning how to read soccer odds movement then you will encounter dropping odds. That is when the initial market price on a selection is reduced. Think of a team that starts at Even Money (1/1) but they become well-backed by punters and shorten to an odds-on quote of 4/5. Those dropping odds simply means that they are moving to a more favourable position to win the match in terms of implied probability. Why are dropping odds important? If you see a price at a bookmaker where a team to win a soccer match has dropped, you can use that to then find that same option at a different bookmaker which hasn’t dropped their odds on that market. This is an area of soccer betting which can be used favourably by a bettor for getting value. Using the free dropping odds tips at Houdini Predictions can help you make the most of such opportunities.
Note that just because a team has dropping odds, it doesn’t mean that they are more likely to come up with the victory. It could be that the team started as 3/1 underdogs in a match, but then scored the opening goal in the first five minutes. So their odds may shorten to something like 11/4 following that goal, to win the match. But they remain underdogs in the overall match outright. Another position of shortening soccer odds is seeing a favourite strengthen further because they are winning a match. A 10/11 favorite could go to 1/2 after going ahead in a match.
How to read soccer odds movement in play
The biggest changes in odds happen for in-play markets. Those dynamic betting odds can shift and rumble around quite a bit. Look at any bookmaker for live odds and you will likely see the changes in market prices indicated by an arrow, depending on whether they have shortened or lengthened. Again, it’s key to catch things at the right time.
Drifting soccer odds
When odds lengthen, from 3/1 to 5/1 for example, then whatever outcome those odds refer to, is increasingly unlikely to happen. The implied probability gets less and less. A simple scenario would be an underdog team in a Premier League match finding themselves 2-0 down in the second half of a match. Their odds of winning get a lot bigger.
Grabbing the value from soccer odds movement
Soccer betting is not just about visiting a sportsbook and taking whatever option at whatever price. It is about getting the most value for money. If you can catch a market option at a peak moment, then that is the ideal scenario. Taking a 3/1 quote on England to beat Germany at the World Cup is a lot better than having to settle for 2/1 odds.
Studying the markets can be time-consuming, however, so follow Houdini Predictions tips to get the strongest picks that are supported by strong odds. From live in-play betting tips to pre-match picks, tipster insights and even those key dropping odds tips, you can find it all for free on the website.