houdini Predictions
Alex D 21 May 2019

What does dropping odds mean?

What does dropping odds mean
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What does dropping odds mean?

Have you ever noticed that the odds during a match have dropped significantly and wondered why? Well if you place a bet when the odds have dropped what you, in fact, have done is put a bet before the bookmaker of your choice hasn’t yet reacted either to market movements, for example if you along with many others have decided to have a bet on for example over 2.5 goals in a match they will eventually change the odds to cover themselves for every eventually. However this isn’t always the case, sometimes the odds can be altered to try to get you as the bettor to back a particular selection that may not be very likely at all. During a match there can be up to 200 different changes on the odds for a single selection and the variation between the peak and the lowest odds offered by the bookmaker can be very different. Analysing the change in these odds can help you as the punter understand where people are putting their money. However, as you’ll find out during this article, this isn’t always the case.

How can they help us decide?

If you are looking at a selection and see the odds dropping this can sometimes be an indicator for example that a team is going to be more likely to score, either through many other people placing a bet on that selection or through a team’s movements or actions in the matchmaking a potential goal or win more likely.

If the odds change for no reason however then if the odds are more profitable, this means you should consider backing the team or player in question. You will also want to look at other bookmakers to see if they have dropped odds in sync with your chosen bookmaker. If they have this is referred to as a global movement. The ideal amount of bookmakers to be monitoring at any one time for a single selection should be no less than 10 and ideally more towards the 15 mark. 

However, some bookmakers know that people will bet according to changes in odds and will change the odds for no reason at all to lure bettors in. Sometimes even before a match odds can vary from what is called opinionated bookmakers who will react to news leading up to the game just as changes in teams or strategy. Bookmakers also have to be sure of how legitimate the news they’re getting through is, such as rumours of match-fixing, they will need to establish that this is the case before either dropping the odds or eventually withdrawing the match completely.

Methods that can be used

Many punters use dropping odds strategy to their advantage; however, this is a hard skill to master and won’t always pay off. A lot of real-time research is required in order to try take advantage of a drop in odds such as if you see breaking news that a player is injured or has just been suspended for the next match, if you are quick enough you will be able to place a bet on that team not to win for example before the bookmakers react and alter the odds accordingly.

There are also many websites that will monitor any changes across many different bookmakers for you across many different sports showing you the percentage that the odds have dropped. This, in turn, can help you in your analysis of your prospected selection; the best strategy is to use these websites alongside other forms of research to try and discover just why the odds have dropped, have the bookmakers dropped them intentionally.

Some punters will also try to manipulate the odds that are being offered on a particular selection, this is where they will place a bet of a large amount down on a specific choice in order to try and get the bookmakers to react and subsequently change the odds in order to cover themselves, these types of punters are called professional spectators however most bookmakers have got wise to this and will typically restrict the amount of money that can be placed on a selection that is deemed unpopular and this could be looked at as suspicious.

A final few words

Hopefully now you understand what is meant by dropping odds and how some punters take advantage of this in order to try to get one step ahead of the bookmaker however betting on dropping odds should always be done with an ear of caution as we have mentioned some bookmakers are aware that players are looking out for these dropping odds and so will alter them without any reason.

There are also many different websites that will provide you real-time dropped odds across all different sports. Using these websites along with other forms of research; such as looking into injuries and suspensions means that you will be getting the most significant advantage you can.

The odds will tell you the story

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